Market notes: after the midterms

This week saw the midterm elections in the United States. The result was not, in the end, a surprise. The pollsters and bookmakers got it roughly right, with the Republicans holding the Senate and the Democrats taking control of the House of Representatives. In an era that is supposed to be full of political shocks, this was not one. Donald Trump has broken most of the rules of politics, confounding all those who said “you just can’t do that” (tell blatant lies, outrage others, contradict yourself, etc), but he could not prevent this adverse outcome. The question now is whether, with Congress once again likely to be gridlocked, the markets will also hold true to their traditional historical experience.

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