Market notes: into the New Year

We are only a few days into 2018 and most of the professional pundits have put their markers down for the New Year. Regular readers will know that I am reluctant to do the same. The end of year is an arbitrary point at which to form a look ahead view - I could make as least a good a case for the end of the fiscal year in March - and more importantly there is useful information to be had by studying consensus professional views and betting that most of them will be wrong, as is the case more years than not. You only have to look back at 2017 and compare the worries that many investors, faced with the unknown quantity of a Trump Presidency and several looming European elections, had at the start of the year with what actually occurred.

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